Thoughts on Egypt

It seems like every pundit is now an expert on Egypt and the Middle East at large. I am not. That said I do have some opinions on events there.

I belive that all people have the right to self determine their government. The people of Egypt are rising againt Mubarak, who is without doubt a dictator. Is he in the vein on Stalin, Mao or the Ayatollah? I dont think so. There is repression, but not as great as some of the worst regimes. Still any repression is unacceptable. However the overarching geopolitical picture must be taken into account. Egypt is a strong ally, and a key player in the region.

The worst scenario seems to be if the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) takes control. We could see another Iran emerge from this. And if the people of Egypt think Ole' Hoshni is bad wait untill you have an Islamist governement. Will a new Islamist goverment support the peace treaty with Israel? The MB assasinated Anwar Sadat for signing it in the first place. How will Israel respond to a new extreme government on their southern border? How will the Suez Canal be handled? We see Iran play games with the Straight of Hormuz every few months.

We see recent reports that the military will not attack the protesters, which will probably sound the death knell for Mubarak. I only hope the Military is up to the task of keeping order and transitioning to a new government. I hope someone can channel the spirit of Kemal Ataturk and model a new country on the principals of Turkey, a secular democracy; which was until a few years ago a bastion in the Muslim world before Erdogan ruined the place. If they can't secure this transition, or if the International community does not support the reformers and allows them to fall as it did in Iran after the deposition of the Shaw, the country could very well fall into the hands of the extremists. If the MB takes control and function as an arm of Iran, just as their Hamas brothers do, Israel will be threatened. It could lead to an outbreak of serious war, one which the US may be called to act.

I support the Egyptian people. Freedom is the birthright of man, and I hope they can create a thriving democracy. But if they don't, and the MB takes control it could lead to war.